Senior Business Analyst - Commercial Loss Forecasting

Capital One
McLean, VA

Overview

Senior Business Analyst - Commercial Loss Forecasting

Summary: As a Senior Business Analyst on our Commercial Loss Forecasting team, you will play a pivotal role assessing Capital One’s ~$140 billion Commercial loan portfolio. You will be responsible for translating complex data into a clear, well-grounded forecast of net charge offs that informs senior leadership of the bank’s most critical credit risks.

In this role you will:

  • Execute, analyze, and present the quarterly commercial credit loss forecast to senior leadership.

  • Own and improve key forecasting models and processes to enhance their accuracy and efficiency.

  • Identify and analyze emerging credit risks by synthesizing portfolio data, market intelligence, and macroeconomic trends.

  • Partner with stakeholders across the Commercial Bank, Risk, and Finance organizations to build consensus and drive key forecasting decisions.

  • Contribute directly to major strategic and regulatory exercises, including setting the Allowance for Credit Loss and running CCAR stress tests.

Core Competencies:

  • Strategic & analytic orientation: A proven track record of decision making and problem solving based on analytics. Conceptual thinking skills must be complemented by a strong quantitative orientation, given that a large part of the business is based on rigorous analytic marketing & credit risk management

  • Strong business judgment, leadership and integrity: He/she should be a tenacious decision maker, able to bring a healthy, aggressive, yet responsible approach to business

  • Strong communication skills: Impeccable written and oral communication credentials, coupled with strategic influencing skills and the ability to drive agreement through intellect, interpersonal and negotiation skills

  • Clear results orientation: display an intense focus on achieving both short and long term goals. He/she should be able to drive and execute an agenda in an uncertain and fluid environment

  • Successful track record of thriving in a fast paced, entrepreneurial and dynamic environment. Previous consulting experience is a plus

Basic Qualifications:

  • Bachelor’s Degree in any quantitative field (Business, Math, Economics, Finance, Statistics, Science, Engineering)

  • At least 1 year of experience in analysis

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Master’s Degree in Business or quantitative field such as Finance, Economics, Physical Sciences, Math, Statistics, Engineering

  • 1+ years of experience in Statistical model building

  • 1+ years of experience in market research

  • 1+ years of experience in SQL querying

  • 2+ years of experience in business analysis

  • 1+ years of experience in consulting

Capital One will consider sponsoring a new qualified applicant for employment authorization for this position.

The minimum and maximum full-time annual salaries for this role are listed below, by location. Please note that this salary information is solely for candidates hired to perform work within one of these locations, and refers to the amount Capital One is willing to pay at the time of this posting. Salaries for part-time roles will be prorated based upon the agreed upon number of hours to be regularly worked.

McLean, VA: $111,200 - $126,900 for Sr. Business Analyst

Candidates hired to work in other locations will be subject to the pay range associated with that location, and the actual annualized salary amount offered to any candidate at the time of hire will be reflected solely in the candidate’s offer letter.

This role is also eligible to earn performance based incentive compensation, which may include cash bonus(es) and/or long term incentives (LTI). Incentives could be discretionary or non discretionary depending on the plan.

Capital One offers a comprehensive, competitive, and inclusive set of health, financial and other benefits that support your total well-being. Learn more at the Capital One Careers website . Eligibility varies based on full or part-time status, exempt or non-exempt status, and management level.

This role is expected to accept applications for a minimum of 5 business days.

No agencies please. Capital One is an equal opportunity employer (EOE, including disability/vet) committed to non-discrimination in compliance with applicable federal, state, and local laws. Capital One promotes a drug-free workplace. Capital One will consider for employment qualified applicants with a criminal history in a manner consistent with the requirements of applicable laws regarding criminal background inquiries, including, to the extent applicable, Article 23-A of the New York Correction Law; San Francisco, California Police Code Article 49, Sections 4901-4920; New York City’s Fair Chance Act; Philadelphia’s Fair Criminal Records Screening Act; and other applicable federal, state, and local laws and regulations regarding criminal background inquiries.

If you have visited our website in search of information on employment opportunities or to apply for a position, and you require an accommodation, please contact Capital One Recruiting at 1-800-304-9102 or via email at [email protected] . All information you provide will be kept confidential and will be used only to the extent required to provide needed reasonable accommodations.

For technical support or questions about Capital One's recruiting process, please send an email to [email protected]

Capital One does not provide, endorse nor guarantee and is not liable for third-party products, services, educational tools or other information available through this site.

Capital One Financial is made up of several different entities. Please note that any position posted in Canada is for Capital One Canada, any position posted in the United Kingdom is for Capital One Europe and any position posted in the Philippines is for Capital One Philippines Service Corp. (COPSSC).

Posted 2026-02-18

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